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G7 Idea of Capping Russian Oil Price Will Not Work for Lack of Authority on Market, Prof. Says_我的网站

A |     　　光模块迎来变数！
　　今日（8月24日）早盘，共封装光学（CPO）指数一度大跌超3%，成份股普遍下行，中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信一度跌超6%。    The G7 countries held a three-day summit from Sunday to Tuesday in the Bavarian Schloss Elmau. Apart from the member states, five countries — South Africa, Senegal, Indonesia, India and Argentina — were invited as guests. The G7 leaders issued a communique, saying the countries will consider introducing new restrictions on the transportation of Russian oil if Moscow does not agree to reduce oil prices.,"The oil market is a world market of 100 million barrels/day and this idea of capping oil prices for Russian crude would never work. It was not even attempted to cap oil prices in the 1970s at the time of the first oil shock," Furfari said, adding that OPEC is the only "authority" that could be able to influence prices of crude.,The expert went on to say that most of the oil-producing countries are already at their production ceiling anyway and they could not increase it to please the West. Even if European countries and the United States "ask nicely" OPEC to increase production to avoid an increase in oil prices it will not work as "OPEC+ remains deaf to the requests of the US and the Europeans.",US Fears Hike in Oil Prices if EU and UK Ban Insuring Tankers With Russian Oil, Reports Suggest16 June, 12:09 GMT,"The OPEC+ has some influence on the cost of crude oil on the market thanks to their quotas, but they will not come to an agreement with the G7 that would last very long if ever some members did reach such a limited agreement. Do you see Iran or Venezuela helping the US against Russia? Even the Emirates would refuse: they produce at their maximum already," Furfari explained.,He noted that while US President Joe Biden does not want to make Saudi Arabia a so-called "pariah state" anymore, the Saudis will not forget his election campaign pledge to treat them just so.,During the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron was caught on tape telling Biden that neither the United Arab Emirates nor Saudi Arabia could pump more oil to the global market to offset the shortfall in Russian exports.。旭光电子、锐捷网络、唯特偶等跌幅也较大。那么，究竟发生了什么？　　分析人士认为，引发CPO大跌的导火索可能与“SK海力士宣布押注下一代CPO”有关。另外，英伟达开始量产，其合作伙伴名单也引发市场关注。

B | 不过，有券商认为，产业链核心受益环节为光模块、光芯片及衬底材料，中际旭创、新易盛、源杰科技等企业将优先承接技术红利。　　“易中天”集体下跌　　上周五还在强劲反弹的光模块板块，今天突然变盘。光模块三大巨头中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信集体大跌。板块跌幅一度达到3%以上。创业板指受拖累，跌幅亦一度超过2.7%。

C | 　　分析人士认为，光模块大跌一方面可能与技术迭代带来的预期变化有关。近日，SK海力士与弗吉尼亚大学等机构的研究人员在顶级科学期刊《自然·电子学》联合发表论文，系统阐述了共封装光学(CPO)技术在高性能计算与AI领域的发展路线图。这是SK海力士首次在该级别期刊公开其AI互联架构的技术蓝图。
　　该论文认为，HBM解决了芯片内部的内存瓶颈，但随着AI集群规模扩展至数千块GPU，机架与机架之间的数据传输已成为新的制约——即“带宽墙”。

D | CPO被定位为突破这一瓶颈的关键路径。

E | 论文提出的长期愿景，是将光互联进一步延伸至内存接口。现有方案中，光互联主要解决处理器之间、机架之间的数据传输问题。而论文提出的“以光为中心”架构，则通过光子中介层将处理器资源池与内存资源池直接相连。使多个AI加速器共享大容量内存，突破现有封装物理限制。

F | 　　不过，这条路线离大规模落地仍有相当距离。论文特别提到，低功耗光子器件、内存一致性协议、系统可靠性以及制造成本都需要继续解决。尤其当光学器件被放到高功耗GPU和HBM附近，散热、激光器可靠性和封装良率都会比传统光模块更难处理。　　另一方面，英伟达宣布，CPO技术正式迈入规模化量产阶段，其合作伙伴名单引发市场关注，可能也改变了资金的预期。　　行业逻辑如何演绎？　　那么，国内产业链的行业逻辑是否还能讲下去？从最新的券商观点来看，行业逻辑似乎变化不大。因此，股价杀跌更可能是资金、结构和情绪层面的原因。

G | 　　东吴证券认为，当前，CPO技术已进入产业化关键阶段，英伟达Spectrum-X平台量产标志着CPO从验证转向规模化应用，功耗与成本优势显著。SK海力士提出光子中介层架构，拓展CPO在存算一体领域的应用边界。海外云厂商与芯片企业深度绑定，谷歌与Marvell达成百亿级定制合作，强化AI算力供应链稳定性。驱动因素包括AI模型规模扩张催生高带宽低功耗互连需求、光模块向高集成度演进，以及算力基础设施向端云协同升级。

H | 产业链核心受益环节为光模块、光芯片及衬底材料，中际旭创、新易盛、源杰科技等企业将优先承接技术红利。　　另外，据浙商证券研报，光芯片由海外主导高端产能，其价值量高，是行业技术壁垒最高、国产替代空间最大的核心赛道。目前国内企业在中低端领域实现规模化替代，高端产品处于快速突破、产能爬坡阶段。源杰科技、长光华芯、东山精密、光迅科技等在DFB分布式反馈激光器、CW连续波激光器、VCSEL垂直腔面发射激光器、探测器芯片等技术储备和战略布局较深。（文章来源：券商中国）。

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Published on:08:03:35